Trading Horse racing : Back to Lay or vise versa

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Xeres
Posts: 29
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:56 pm

Tue Oct 01, 2019 1:19 pm

Hey,


I've recently started on my trading journey and I want to test out some automation rules for either backing or laying just before the off and then placing the offset to trade out in play.

Ive been doing this manually with some success but I have a tendancy to get greedy and this has backfired on me a number of times.

I've been doing some daily analysis on previous races and pulling out the horses which are likely to be slow starters using the following words in the in-race comments.

Held up in rear
Slow to Start
Slowly into Stride
Dwelt
Driven Along


I was wondering if there were any others anyone was aware of?

I don't have any in-race data as yet so this is difficult to back test but there are usually 5 or more races a day where my criteria is met.


I plan to then move onto picking out front runners and I've pulled out the following comments:

Led
Tracked Leaders
Chased Leaders
In Touch

Again if there are any others any ideas would be much appreciated.
Cheers

Jukebox
Posts: 558
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

Tue Oct 01, 2019 6:14 pm

If you set your out bet before the off you can use the 'keep bet' facility to keep it for the in play.

'Made All'

wilf
Posts: 76
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2016 7:34 pm

Tue Oct 01, 2019 6:22 pm

Hi Xeres,

Here's a few more that you can add.

In rear
Dwelt and in rear
Always in rear
Very slowly away
Always last

For proper front runners these are the three you need to be looking for.

Made all
Made virtually all
Led

It can be profitable if you're willing to put the research in. I'd stick to something like 30% from BSP to start with, build up your bank and get your criteria right then you can adjust and automate it.

With the lay to backs though you can't just go off the comments like held up in rear and expect the price to fly out just because It's at the back, that might just be the horses run style. A good example is in the race today (15:10 Southwell) Diomede des Mottes was at the back, It's in race comments was held up last, but it was just cruising at the back. From a BSP of 3.75 for most of the race it only went to a high of about 4.4 even with the fav Big Nasty in second.

You have to look at all of the info about the race. horses run style, course, draw, do the horses DOB a lot?. Like pre race trading I'm not just looking at the price of the horse I'm trading all of the time, I'm more interested in the prices of the other horses.

For front runners a well known example would be front runners at Chester 5f drawn low. you'll still need to look at the other horses though, does it have competition for the lead?

Hope that helps a bit and good luck with it.

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The Silk Run
Posts: 60
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:53 am

Tue Oct 01, 2019 7:05 pm

I use BA in-play trader interface for most of my in-play selections. Once configured and optomised its an excellent trading tool. Before practising LIVE I watched the chart for about a month looking for patterns and anticipating how the race would unfold, I still do this in between races that don't meet my selection criteria.

As others have commented race reading, order flow extremely important element.

I am now looking at automation so that is my flight path.

Xeres
Posts: 29
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:56 pm

Tue Oct 01, 2019 7:44 pm

wilf wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 6:22 pm
Hi Xeres,

Here's a few more that you can add.

In rear
Dwelt and in rear
Always in rear
Very slowly away
Always last

For proper front runners these are the three you need to be looking for.

Made all
Made virtually all
Led
Thanks I will have a look at those too.

I'm only using this strategy on longer distance races because the prices move more slowly. I prefer the lay to back on the hurdles because there is more that can go wrong and send the price out, although I do find the looming liability more stressful.

Interestingly I actually had a back to lay on Diomede des Mottes today, I do lots of horse race modelling and it was ranked as my strongest horse despite the slow start so I stuck with it. I only wished I had held on a little longer with it because I closed my position early for a small profit.

Xeres
Posts: 29
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:56 pm

Tue Oct 01, 2019 7:52 pm

The Silk Run wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 7:05 pm
I use BA in-play trader interface for most of my in-play selections. Once configured and optomised its an excellent trading tool. Before practising LIVE I watched the chart for about a month looking for patterns and anticipating how the race would unfold, I still do this in between races that don't meet my selection criteria.

As others have commented race reading, order flow extremely important element.

I am now looking at automation so that is my flight path.
I tried using it today but I ended up placing a bet with it without realising, luckily I managed to close it out for a small loss. At the moment I watch the race on Betfair TV and the prices on the ladder. I don't like looking at the charts in-play because they seem to exaggerate the price changes and make me nervous.

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Thebest147
Posts: 53
Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2015 8:01 am

Tue Oct 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Back to lay front runners is to hard nowadays,I would more interested in held up in mid field or closer,took it up at the two furlongs poll and either win or come close up placed. That way let the race do its thing before you get involved as you are only trading in the dark.when they hit the 2 furlongs poll that is were the Big boys come out to play, money to be made,old Chinese proverb when people are greedy be Scared, And more importantly when people are scared Be Greedy

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The Silk Run
Posts: 60
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:53 am

Tue Oct 01, 2019 8:40 pm

Xeres wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 7:52 pm
The Silk Run wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 7:05 pm
I use BA in-play trader interface for most of my in-play selections. Once configured and optomised its an excellent trading tool. Before practising LIVE I watched the chart for about a month looking for patterns and anticipating how the race would unfold, I still do this in between races that don't meet my selection criteria.

As others have commented race reading, order flow extremely important element.

I am now looking at automation so that is my flight path.
I tried using it today but I ended up placing a bet with it without realising, luckily I managed to close it out for a small loss. At the moment I watch the race on Betfair TV and the prices on the ladder. I don't like looking at the charts in-play because they seem to exaggerate the price changes and make me nervous.
Hi Hi Xeres

MAY I divert your attention to the official Betfair Terms & Conditions !!!
This NOT conservative by any means. It is far worse, more of cliff EDGE ....

Part F - Betfair Live Video - Conditions of Use
WARNING STREAMING TIME DELAY

5.1 ALTHOUGH CONTENT ON BETFAIR LIVE VIDEO IS ADVERTISED AS "LIVE", YOU SHOULD BE AWARE THAT BETFAIR LIVE VIDEO IS SUBJECT TO A TIME DELAY. The precise length of the time delay will vary depending on a number of factors, but you should typically expect a time delay of between 2 and 5 seconds behind the actual event. The time delay may sometimes be significantly longer than this.
5.2 IF YOU RELY ON BETFAIR LIVE VIDEO TO PLACE BETS, YOU DO SO ENTIRELY AT YOUR OWN RISK. Betfair accepts no responsibility for any loss suffered by you as a result of your reliance on Betfair Live Video.

I only brought this to your intention because I hope you are not making selections partly on the basis of live video !!! AGAIN, sorry to repeat myself but race reading is KEY in my opinion.

Xeres
Posts: 29
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:56 pm

Tue Oct 01, 2019 11:21 pm

[quote="The Silk Run" post_id=200236
I only brought this to your intention because I hope you are not making selections partly on the basis of live video !!! AGAIN, sorry to repeat myself but race reading is KEY in my opinion.
[/quote]

I watch the races mainly to get a feel for what is happening, it doesn't inform my decisions to close my trades, although it does play some part in it. I rely a lot on my instinct so I make an initial assessment of the race and the commentators comments and then see what's going on in the market.
I'm very new to this though so I'm still learning. I try and make a note of what I did and why so I can try and iron out my mistakes.

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